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Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com, where Silver is one of the nation’s most influential political forecasters.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
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Bayesian statistical decision theory, Theory of Knowledge, Forecasting, Methodology, History, Knowledge, theory of, nyt:combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction=2012-10-14, New York Times bestseller, Economics, POLITICAL SCIENCE, Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie, Prognose, Prévision, Méthodologie, Histoire, Théorie de la connaissance, Théorie de la décision bayésienne, Epistemology, Prévisions, Techniques de prévision, Futurologie, Méthodes statistiques, nyt:education=2015-03-08, Forecasting--methodology, Forecasting--history, Cb158 .s54 2012, 519.5/42Showing 10 featured editions. View all 10 editions?
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Sinyal ve Parazit: Neden Bazi Tahminler Tutar, Bazilari Tutmaz
Oct 28, 2018, Epsilon Yayinevi
paperback
in Turkish
6051733817 9786051733814
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03
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't
Feb 03, 2015, Penguin Books
paperback
0143125087 9780143125082
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La señal y el ruido: Cómo navegar por la maraña de datos que nos inunda, localizar los que son relevantes y utilizarlos para elaborar predicciones infalibles
Apr 15, 2014, Ediciones Península
paperback
in Spanish
8499423086 9788499423081
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The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction
2013, Penguin
Paperback
in English
0141975652 9780141975658
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06
Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction
2012, Penguin Books, Limited
in English
1846147530 9781846147531
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The signal and the noise: The art and science of prediction
2012, Penguin Books
Hardcover
in English
1846147522 9781846147524
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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't
2012, Penguin Press, Penguin Press HC, The
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in English
159420411X 9781594204111
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The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction
Jun 19, 2012, Penguin Books, Limited (UK)
paperback
1846148162 9781846148163
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The Signal and the Noise: Why so many predictions fail - but some don't
2012, Penguin Press
Hardcover
in English
159420411X 9781594204111
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Source title: La señal y el ruido: Cómo navegar por la maraña de datos que nos inunda, localizar los que son relevantes y utilizarlos para elaborar predicciones infalibles
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April 10, 2023 | Edited by bitnapper | Merge works (MRID: 55317) |
April 4, 2023 | Edited by Stew | Add translation info. |
April 4, 2023 | Edited by bitnapper | merge authors |
March 17, 2023 | Created by ImportBot | Imported from amazon.com record |