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One approach to oil markets is to treat oil as an asset, besides its role as a commodity. Speculative and nonspeculative activity by investors in the derivatives markets could be responsible for a sizable increase in oil prices. This paper recognizes both the consumption and investment aspects of crude oil and proposes Levy processes for modeling uncertainty and options pricing. Calibration to crude oil futures' options shows high volatility of oil futures prices, fat-tailed, and right-skewed market expectations, implying a higher probability mass on crude oil prices remaining above the futures' level. These findings support the view that demand for futures contracts by investors could lead to excessively high price volatility.
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Edition | Availability |
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1
Subordinated Levy Processes and Applications to Crude Oil Options
2005, International Monetary Fund
in English
1452705763 9781452705767
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2
Subordinated levy processes and applications to crude oil options
2005, International Monetary Fund, African Dept.
in English
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3
Subordinated Levy Processes and Applications to Crude Oil Options
2005, International Monetary Fund
in English
1451861931 9781451861938
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4
Subordinated Levy Processes and Applications to Crude Oil Options
2005, International Monetary Fund
in English
145190729X 9781451907292
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Book Details
Edition Notes
"September 2005."
Includes bibliographical references (p. 24-25).
Also available on the World Wide Web.
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- Created October 26, 2008
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