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This paper proposes a new method of estimating the Taylor rule with a time-varying implicit inflation target and a time-varying natural rate of interest. The inflation target and the natural rate are modeled as random walks and are estimated using maximum likelihood and the Kalman filter. I apply this method to U.S. monetary policy over the past 25 years and find considerable time variation in the implicit target, confirming hypotheses about "opportunistic disinflation" and the recent "deflation scare."
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Subjects
Econometric models, Inflation (Finance), Monetary policyPlaces
United StatesEdition | Availability |
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1
Estimating the implicit inflation target: an application to U.S. monetary policy
2005, International Monetary Fund, European Dept.
in English
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2
Estimating the Implicit Inflation Target: An Application to U. S. Monetary Policy
2005, International Monetary Fund
in English
1452715866 9781452715865
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3
Estimating the Implicit Inflation Target: An Application to U. S. Monetary Policy
2005, International Monetary Fund
in English
1451906323 9781451906325
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4
Estimating the Implicit Inflation Target: An Application to U. S. Monetary Policy
2005, International Monetary Fund
in English
145186096X 9781451860962
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Book Details
Edition Notes
"April 2005."
Includes bibliographical references (p. 22-24).
Also available on the World Wide Web.
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- Created October 24, 2008
- 2 revisions
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