Wind power forecasting error distributions over multiple timescales

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Wind power forecasting error distributions ov ...
Bri-Mathias Hodge
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Last edited by MARC Bot
December 13, 2022 | History

Wind power forecasting error distributions over multiple timescales

preprint

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Wind forecasting is an important consideration in integrating large amounts of wind power into the electricity grid. The wind power forecast error distribution assumed can have a large impact on the confidence intervals produced in wind power forecasting. In this work we examine the shape of the persistence model error distribution for ten different wind plants in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system over multiple timescales. Comparisons are made between the experimental distribution shape and that of the normal distribution. The shape of the distribution is found to change significantly with the length of the forecasting timescale. The Cauchy distribution is proposed as a model distribution for the forecast errors and model parameters are fitted. Finally, the differences in confidence intervals obtained using the Cauchy distribution and the normal distribution are compared.

Publish Date
Language
English

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Cover of: Wind power forecasting error distributions over multiple timescales
Wind power forecasting error distributions over multiple timescales
2011, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
electronic resource / in English
Cover of: Wind power forecasting error distributions over multiple timescales
Wind power forecasting error distributions over multiple timescales: preprint
2011, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
electronic resource : in English

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Book Details


Edition Notes

Title from title screen (viewed April 18, 2011).

"March 2011."

"To be presented at the Power & Energy Society General Meeting, Detroit, Michigan, July 24-29, 2011."

Includes bibliographical references (p. 8).

DE-AC36-08GO28308 WER9.5550

Full text available via Internet in .pdf format. Adobe Acrobat Reader required.

Published in
Golden, CO]
Series
NREL/CP -- 5500-50614, Conference paper (National Renewable Energy Laboratory (U.S.)) -- 5500-50614.

The Physical Object

Format
[electronic resource] :
Pagination
1 online resource (8 p.)

ID Numbers

Open Library
OL43925768M
OCLC/WorldCat
713068032

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