Can interest rate volatility be extracted from the cross section of bond yields?

an investigation of unspanned stochastic volatility

Can interest rate volatility be extracted fro ...
Pierre Collin Dufresne, Pierre ...
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Last edited by MARC Bot
December 13, 2020 | History

Can interest rate volatility be extracted from the cross section of bond yields?

an investigation of unspanned stochastic volatility

"Most affine models of the term structure with stochastic volatility (SV) predict that the variance of the short rate is simultaneously a linear combination of yields and the quadratic variation of the spot rate. However, we find empirically that the A1(3) SV model generates a time series for the variance state variable that is strongly negatively correlated with a GARCH estimate of the quadratic variation of the spot rate process. We then investigate affine models that exhibit %u2018unspanned stochastic volatility (USV).%u2019 Of the models tested, only the A1(4) USV model is found to generate both realistic volatility estimates and a good cross-sectional fit. Our findings suggests that interest rate volatility cannot be extracted from the cross-section of bond prices. Separately, we propose an alternative to the canonical representation of affine models introduced by Dai and Singleton (2001). This representation has several advantages, including: (I) the state variables have simple physical interpretations such as level, slope and curvature, (ii) their dynamics remain affine and tractable, (iii) the model is econometrically identifiable, (iv) model-insensitive estimates of the state vector process implied from the term structure are readily available, and (v) it isolates those parameters which are not identifiable from bond prices alone if the model is specified to exhibit USV"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

Publish Date
Language
English

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Edition Notes

Includes bibliographical references.
Title from PDF file as viewed on 1/12/2005.
Also available in print.
System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.
Mode of access: World Wide Web.

Published in
Cambridge, MA
Series
NBER working paper series ;, working paper 10756, Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research : Online) ;, working paper no. 10756.

Classifications

Library of Congress
HB1

The Physical Object

Format
Electronic resource

Edition Identifiers

Open Library
OL3476045M
LCCN
2005615502

Work Identifiers

Work ID
OL5889868W

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