Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial ...
Mark W. Watson, Olivier J.. Bl...
Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets by Mark W. Watson, Olivier J.. Blanchard, National Bureau of Economic Research, Mark W. Watson, Olivier J.. Blanchard, National Bureau of Economic Research
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Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets

This paper investigates the nature and the presence of bubbles in financial markets. Are bubbles consistent with rationality? If they are, do they, like Ponzi games, require the presence of new players forever? Do they imply impossible events in finite time, such as negative prices? Do they need to go on forever to be rational? Can they have real effects? These are some of the questions asked in the first three sections. The general conclusion is that bubbles, in many markets, are consistent with rationality, that phenomena such as runaway asset prices and market crashes are consistent with rational bubbles. In the last two sections, we consider whether the presence of bubbles in a particular market can be detected statistically. The task is much easier if there are data on both prices and returns. In this case, as shown by Shiller and Singleton, the hypothesis of no bubble implies restrictions on their joint distribution and can be tested. In markets in which returns are difficult to observe, possibly because of a nonpecuniary component, such as gold, the task is more difficult. We consider the use of both "runs tests" and "tail tests" and conclude that they give circumstantial evidence at best.

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Language
English
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Cover of: Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets
Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets
1983, National Bureau of Economic Research
electronic resource in English

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June 1983.

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Mode of access: World Wide Web.

Published in
Cambridge, Mass
Series
NBER working paper series -- no. w0945, Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) -- no. w0945

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[electronic resource]

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Open Library
OL62728292M

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OL46194288W

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