The Distribution of Stock Return Volatility
Heiko Ebens, Torben G.. Anders...
The Distribution of Stock Return Volatility by Heiko Ebens, Torben G.. Andersen, Tim Bollerslev, Francis X.. Diebold, National Bureau of Economic Research, Heiko Ebens, Torben G.. Andersen, Tim Bollerslev, Francis X.. Diebold, National Bureau of Economic Research
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We exploit direct model-free measures of daily equity return volatility and correlation obtained from high-frequency intraday transaction prices on individual stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average over a five-year period to confirm, solidify and extend existing characterizations of stock return volatility and correlation. We find that the unconditional distributions of the variances and covariances for all thirty stocks are leptokurtic and highly skewed to the right, while the logarithmic standard deviations and correlations all appear approximately Gaussian. Moreover, the distributions of the returns scaled by the realized standard deviations are also Gaussian. Consistent with our documentation of remarkably precise scaling laws under temporal aggregation, the realized logarithmic standard deviations and correlations all show strong temporal dependence and appear to be well described by long-memory processes. Positive returns have less impact on future variances and correlations than negative returns of the same absolute magnitude, although the economic importance of this asymmetry is minor. Finally, there is strong evidence that equity volatilities and correlations move together, possibly reducing the benefits to portfolio diversification when the market is most volatile. Our findings are broadly consistent with a latent volatility fact or structure, and they set the stage for improved high-dimensional volatility modeling and out-of-sample forecasting, which in turn hold promise for the development of better decision making in practical situations of risk management, portfolio allocation, and asset pricing.

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English
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Cover of: The Distribution of Stock Return Volatility
The Distribution of Stock Return Volatility
2000, National Bureau of Economic Research
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October 2000.

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Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers.

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Mode of access: World Wide Web.

Published in
Cambridge, Mass
Series
NBER working paper series -- no. w7933, Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) -- no. w7933

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[electronic resource]

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OL62724554M

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OL46190811W

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