Will China eat our lunch or take us out to dinner?

simulating the transition paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China

Will China eat our lunch or take us out to di ...
Hans Fehr, Hans Fehr
Locate

My Reading Lists:

Create a new list


Buy this book

Last edited by MARC Bot
December 13, 2020 | History

Will China eat our lunch or take us out to dinner?

simulating the transition paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China

"This paper develops a dynamic, life-cycle, general equilibrium model to study the interdependent demographic, fiscal, and economic transition paths of China, Japan, the U.S., and the EU. Each of these countries/regions is entering a period of rapid and significant aging requiring major fiscal adjustments. In previous studies that excluded China we predicted that tax hikes needed to pay benefits along the developed world's demographic transition would lead to capital shortage, reducing real wages per unit of human capital. Adding China to the model dramatically alters this prediction. Even though China is aging rapidly, its saving behavior, growth rate, and fiscal policies are very different from those of developed countries. If this continues to be the case, the model's long run looks much brighter. China eventually becomes the world's saver and, thereby, the developed world's savoir with respect to its long-run supply of capital and long-run general equilibrium prospects. And, rather than seeing the real wage per unit of human capital fall, the West and Japan see it rise by one fifth by 2030 and by three fifths by 2100. These wage increases are over and above those associated with technical progress"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

Publish Date
Language
English

Buy this book

Book Details


Edition Notes

Includes bibliographical references.
Title from PDF file as viewed on 10/13/2005.
Also available in print.
System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.
Mode of access: World Wide Web.

Published in
Cambridge, MA
Series
NBER working paper series ;, working paper 11668, Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research : Online) ;, working paper no. 11668.

Classifications

Library of Congress
HB1

The Physical Object

Format
Electronic resource

Edition Identifiers

Open Library
OL3479215M
LCCN
2005620349

Work Identifiers

Work ID
OL3740077W

Community Reviews (0)

No community reviews have been submitted for this work.

Lists

Download catalog record: RDF / JSON