Determinacy, learnability, and plausibility in monetary policy analysis

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Determinacy, learnability, and plausibility i ...
Bennett T. McCallum, Bennett T ...
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December 22, 2020 | History

Determinacy, learnability, and plausibility in monetary policy analysis

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"In a very broad class of dynamic linear models, if agents possess knowledge of current endogenous variables in a least-squares learning process, determinacy of a rational expectations (RE) equilibrium is sufficient but not necessary for learnability of that equilibrium. Thus, since learnability is an attractive necessary condition for plausibility of any equilibrium, there may exist a single plausible RE solution even in cases of indeterminacy. This paper proposes and outlines a distinct criterion that plausible models should possess, termed "well formulated" (WF), which rules out infinite discontinuities in the implied impulse response functions. The paper explores the relationship between this WF property and learnability, under the information assumption mentioned above, and finds that they often agree but neither strictly implies the other. Extending the P-matrix requirement, implied for specified matrices by the WF property, to one that demands positive dominant-diagonal matrices would guarantee both WF and learnability, but a suitable rationale has not been found. Finally, under a second information assumption, which gives the agents only lagged information on endogenous variables during the learning process, the situation is less favorable in the sense that learnability can be guaranteed only under special assumptions"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

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English

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Edition Notes

Title from PDF file as viewed on 7/23/2008.

Includes bibliographical references.

Also available in print.

System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Mode of access: World Wide Web.

Published in
Cambridge, MA
Series
NBER working paper series -- working paper 14164, Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research : Online) -- working paper no. 14164.

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Library of Congress
HB1

The Physical Object

Format
Electronic resource

Edition Identifiers

Open Library
OL17088540M
LCCN
2008610981

Work Identifiers

Work ID
OL3524733W

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