"The research on which this paper is based was made possible by the generous support of the Royal Danish Government, through their embassy in Pretoria, South Africa." -- P. [iv] of cover.

"The world is currently experiencing a massive change in the balance of power as influence and industry shift from the West to the East. Whilst African developments will not become a substantive driver and factor in global scenarios in the next two or three decades, the importance of the region will steadily increase. This monograph looks at key shifts that will determine the future of Africa in the world. The first four 'megatrends' constitute those external developments that will impact upon Africa and over which it has little control, namely the global shift of power from West to East, the impact of climate change, globalisation, and state power and interdependence and complexity. The second set of 'African variables' reflects domestic developments: Africa's population dynamics, trade, democratisation/ governance, and peace and stability. Collectively the two sets of factors provide a glimpse of the possible emerging futures for the continent. Africa's future will be determined by its leadership and the choices that are made by Africa's elected and unelected Big Men -- not by the size of their ideas, but in the example they set in the daily decisions about contacts, conflict of interest and democratic accountability." -- P. [iv] of cover.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 132-150).

Full text on the ISS website.