A Computational Model of Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism

A Prototype for More-General Social-Science Modeling

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Last edited by MARC Bot
September 16, 2024 | History

A Computational Model of Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism

A Prototype for More-General Social-Science Modeling

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This report builds on earlier RAND research (e.g., Understanding and Influencing Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism, 2012) that reviewed and integrated social science relevant to terrorism and insurgency. That research used qualitative conceptual causal models called ⁰́factor trees⁰́₊ to identify the factors that contribute to various aspects of terrorism or insurgency at a slice in time and how the factors relate to each other qualitatively. This report goes beyond the conceptual and qualitative by specifying a prototype uncertainty-sensitive computational model for one of the factor trees from the earlier research, one that describes public support for terrorism and insurgency. The authors first detail their approach to designing such a model, emphasizing the challenges they encountered in assigning mathematical meaning to the factor tree⁰́₉s numerous factors and subfactors, identifying suitable ⁰́₋building block⁰́₊ combining algorithms, and the uncertainty in their values and the relationships among them. They then describe how they implemented the model in a high-level visual-programming environment, show how the model can be used for exploratory analysis under uncertainty, and discuss their initial experience with it. Methodologically, the work illustrates a new approach to causal, uncertainty-and-context-sensitive, social-science modeling. It also illustrates how such models can be reviewable, reusable, and potentially composable.

Publish Date
Publisher
RAND Corporation
Pages
110

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Cover of: A Computational Model of Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism

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Edition Notes

Source title: A Computational Model of Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism: A Prototype for More-General Social-Science Modeling

Classifications

Library of Congress
HV6431 .D297 2013, HV6431.D297 2013

The Physical Object

Format
paperback
Number of pages
110

ID Numbers

Open Library
OL30719011M
ISBN 10
0833079190
ISBN 13
9780833079190
LCCN
2013013214
OCLC/WorldCat
836557834

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September 16, 2024 Edited by MARC Bot import existing book
November 14, 2020 Edited by MARC Bot import existing book
October 28, 2020 Created by ImportBot import new book