An equilibrium model of "global imbalances" and low interest rates

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An equilibrium model of "global imbalances" and low interest rates

Three of the most important recent facts in global macroeconomics - the sustained rise in the US current account deficit, the stubborn decline in long run real rates, and the rise in the share of US assets in global portfolio - ear as anomalies from the perspective of conventional wisdom and models. Instead, in this paper we provide a model that rationalizes these facts as an equilibrium outcome of two observed forces: a) potential growth differentials among different regions of the world and, b) heterogeneity in these regions' capacity to generate financial assets from real investments. In extensions of the basic model, we also generate exchange rate and FDI excess returns which are broadly consistent with the recent trends in these variables. Unlike the conventional wisdom, in the absence of a large change in (a) or (b), our model does not augur any catastrophic event. More generally, the framework is flexible enough to shed light on a range of scenarios in a global equilibrium environment. Keywords: Current account deficits, capital flows, interest rates, global portfolios and equilibrium, growth and financial development asymmetries, exchange rates, FDI, intermediation rents. JEL Classifications: EO, F3, F4, G1.

Publish Date
Language
English
Pages
53

Previews available in: English

Book Details


Edition Notes

"January 14, 2006."

Includes bibliographical references (p. 40-41).

Abstract in HTML and working paper for download in PDF available via World Wide Web at the Social Science Research Network.

Published in
Cambridge, MA
Series
Working paper series / Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics -- working paper 06-02, Working paper (Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Economics) -- no. 06-02.

The Physical Object

Pagination
53 p. :
Number of pages
53

Edition Identifiers

Open Library
OL24643613M
Internet Archive
equilibriummodel00caba
OCLC/WorldCat
68044257

Work Identifiers

Work ID
OL15727183W

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