Social learning and peer effects in consumption

evidence from movie sales

Social learning and peer effects in consumpti ...
Enrico Moretti, Enrico Moretti
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December 22, 2020 | History

Social learning and peer effects in consumption

evidence from movie sales

"Using box-office data for all movies released between 1982 and 2000, I test the implications of a simple model of social learning in which the consumption decisions of individuals depend on information they receive from their peers. The model predicts different box office sales dynamics depending on whether opening weekend demand is higher or lower than expected. I use a unique feature of the movie industry to identify ex-ante demand expectations: the number of screens dedicated to a movie in its opening weekend reflects the sales expectations held by profit-maximizing theater owners. Several pieces of evidence are consistent with social learning. First, sales of movies with positive surprise and negative surprise in opening weekend demand diverge over time. If a movie has better than expected appeal and therefore experiences larger than expected sales in week 1, consumers in week 2 update upward their expectations of quality, further increasing week 2 sales. Second, this divergence is small for movies for which consumers have strong priors and large for movies for which consumers have weak priors. Third, the effect of a surprise is stronger for audiences with large social networks. Finally, consumers do not respond to surprises in first week sales that are orthogonal to movie quality, like weather shocks. Overall, social learning appears to be an important determinant of sales in the movie industry, accounting for 38% of sales for the typical movie with positive surprise. This implies the existence of a large "social multiplier'' such that the elasticity of aggregate demand to movie quality is larger than the elasticity of individual demand to movie quality"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

Publish Date
Language
English

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Cover of: Social learning and peer effects in consumption
Social learning and peer effects in consumption: evidence from movie sales
2008, National Bureau of Economic Research
Electronic resource in English

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Book Details


Edition Notes

Title from PDF file as viewed on 6/13/2008.

Includes bibliographical references.

Also available in print.

System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Mode of access: World Wide Web.

Published in
Cambridge, MA
Series
NBER working paper series -- working paper 13832, Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research : Online) -- working paper no. 13832.

Classifications

Library of Congress
HB1

The Physical Object

Format
Electronic resource

Edition Identifiers

Open Library
OL17087137M
LCCN
2008610531

Work Identifiers

Work ID
OL12042457W

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