Is bad news about inflation good news for the exchange rate?

Is bad news about inflation good news for the ...
Richard Clarida, Richard Clari ...
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Last edited by MARC Bot
December 19, 2020 | History

Is bad news about inflation good news for the exchange rate?

"We show in a simple -- but robust -- theoretical monetary exchange rate model that the sign of the covariance between an inflation surprise and the nominal exchange rate can tell us something about how monetary policy is conducted. Specifically, we show that 'bad news' about inflation -- that it is higher than expected -- can be 'good news' for the nominal exchange rate -- that it appreciates on this news -- if the central bank has an inflation target that it implements with a Taylor Rule. The empirical work in this paper examines point sampled data on inflation announcements and the reaction of nominal exchange rates in 10 minute windows around these announcements for 10 countries and several different inflation measures for the period July 2001 through March 2005. When we pool the data, we do in fact find that bad news about inflation is indeed good news for the nominal exchange rate, that the results are statistically significant, and that the r-square is substantial, in excess of 0.25 for core measures of inflation. We also find significant differences comparing the inflation targeting countries and the two non-inflation targeting countries"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

Publish Date
Language
English

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Cover of: Is bad news about inflation good news for the exchange rate?
Is bad news about inflation good news for the exchange rate?
2007, National Bureau of Economic Research
Electronic resource in English

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Book Details


Edition Notes

Title from PDF file as viewed on 6/1/2007.

Includes bibliographical references.

Also available in print.

System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Mode of access: World Wide Web.

Published in
Cambridge, MA
Series
NBER working paper series -- working paper 13010, Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research : Online) -- working paper no. 13010.

Classifications

Library of Congress
HB1

The Physical Object

Format
Electronic resource

Edition Identifiers

Open Library
OL16323186M
LCCN
2007615160

Work Identifiers

Work ID
OL11736902W

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