Drawing on ecology and biology, math and physics, the author offers four fundamental tools that scientists and engineers use to forecast the likelihood of sudden change: stability, catastrophe, complexity, and game theories.
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Crashes, crises, and calamities: how we can use science to read the early-warning signs
2011, Basic Books
in English
0465021026 9780465021024
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Book Details
Table of Contents
Pt. 1. A potted pre-history of prognostication. Do animals have crystal balls?
The future eclipsed
Galileo's hell
Pt. 2. How disasters happen. The stress of it all
Runaway disaster
The balance of nature and the nature of balance
Pt. 3. Imminent catastrophes : reading the signs. The chaotic ecology of dragons
Teetering on the brink of catastrophe
Models and supermodels
Beware of mathematicians
Weak signals as major early-warning signs
Summary : The future of forecasting.
Edition Notes
Includes bibliographical references and index.
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{{cite book|author=Len Fisher |date=2011 |title=Crashes, crises, and calamities |url=https://archive.org/details/crashescrisescal0000fish |publication-place=New York |publisher=Basic Books |isbn=978-0-465-02102-4 |lccn=2010048289 |oclc=657595615 |ol=24914799M}}