MARC Record from Library of Congress

LEADER: 02607nam a22003017a 4500
001 2010656199
003 DLC
005 20100819115615.0
007 cr |||||||||||
008 100819s2010 mau sb 000 0 eng
010 $a 2010656199
040 $aDLC$cDLC
050 00 $aHB1
100 1 $aWu, Jing.
245 10 $aEvaluating conditions in major Chinese housing markets$h[electronic resource] /$cJing Wu, Joseph Gyourko, Yongheng Deng.
260 $aCambridge, MA :$bNational Bureau of Economic Research,$cc2010.
490 1 $aNBER working paper series ;$vworking paper 16189
538 $aSystem requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.
538 $aMode of access: World Wide Web.
500 $aTitle from PDF file as viewed on 8/19/2010.
530 $aAlso available in print.
504 $aIncludes bibliographical references.
520 3 $a"High and rising prices in Chinese housing markets have attracted global attention, as well as the interest of the Chinese government and its regulators. Housing markets look very risky based on the stylized facts we document. Price-to-rent ratios in Beijing and seven other large markets across the country have increased from 30% to 70% since the beginning of 2007. Current price-to-rent ratios imply very low user costs of no more than 2%-3% of house value. Very high expected capital gains appear necessary to justify such low user costs of owning. Our calculations suggest that even modest declines in expected appreciation would lead to large price declines of over 40% in markets such as Beijing, absent offsetting rent increases or other countervailing factors. Price-to-income ratios also are at their highest levels ever in Beijing and select other markets. Much of the increase in prices is occurring in land values. Using data from the local land auction market in Beijing, we are able to produce a constant quality land price index for that city. Real, constant quality land values have increased by nearly 800% since the first quarter of 2003, with half that rise occurring over the past two years. State-owned enterprises controlled by the central government have played an important role in this increase, as our analysis shows they paid 27% more than other bidders for an otherwise equivalent land parcel"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
700 1 $aGyourko, Joseph E.,$d1956-
700 1 $aDeng, Yongheng.
710 2 $aNational Bureau of Economic Research.
830 0 $aWorking paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research : Online) ;$vworking paper no. 16189.
856 40 $uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w16189