MARC Record from Library of Congress

LEADER: 02408cam a22002897a 4500
001 2008610878
003 DLC
005 20080814092135.0
007 cr |||||||||||
008 080710s2008 mau sb 000 0 eng
010 $a 2008610878
040 $aDLC$cDLC
050 00 $aHB1
100 1 $aDavis, Steven J.
245 10 $aInterpreting the great moderation$h[electronic resource] :$bchanges in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro levels /$cSteven J. Davis, James A. Kahn.
260 $aCambridge, MA :$bNational Bureau of Economic Research,$cc2008.
490 1 $aNBER working paper series ;$vworking paper 14048
538 $aSystem requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.
538 $aMode of access: World Wide Web.
500 $aTitle from PDF file as viewed on 7/10/2008.
530 $aAlso available in print.
504 $aIncludes bibliographical references.
520 3 $a"We review evidence on the Great Moderation in conjunction with evidence about volatility trends at the micro level. We combine the two types of evidence to develop a tentative story for important components of the aggregate volatility decline and its consequences. The key ingredients are declines in firm-level volatility and aggregate volatility -- most dramatically in the durable goods sector -- but the absence of a decline in household consumption volatility and individual earnings uncertainty. Our explanation for the aggregate volatility decline stresses improved supply-chain management, particularly in the durable goods sector, and, less important, a shift in production and employment from goods to services. We provide evidence that better inventory control made a substantial contribution to declines in firm-level and aggregate volatility. Consistent with this view, if we look past the turbulent 1970s and early 1980s much of the moderation reflects a decline in high frequency (short-term) fluctuations. While these developments represent efficiency gains, they do not imply (nor is there evidence for) a reduction in economic uncertainty faced by individuals and households"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
700 1 $aKahn, James A.$q(James Allan).
710 2 $aNational Bureau of Economic Research.
830 0 $aWorking paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research : Online) ;$vworking paper no. 14048.
856 40 $uhttp://papers.nber.org/papers/w14048