MARC Record from Library of Congress

LEADER: 02462cam a22003857a 4500
001 2005616543
003 DLC
005 20050310102843.0
007 cr |||||||||||
008 050222s2000 nyu sb f000 0 eng
010 $a 2005616543
040 $aDLC$cDLC
043 $ae-gx---$an-us---
050 00 $aHB1
100 1 $aEstrella, Arturo.
245 10 $aHow stable is the predictive power of the yield curve?$h[electronic resource]$bevidence from Germany and the United States /$cArturo Estrella, Anthony P. Rodrigues, and Sebastian Schich.
260 $a[New York, N.Y.] :$bFederal Reserve Bank of New York,$c[2000]
490 1 $aStaff reports ;$vno. 113
538 $aSystem requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.
538 $aMode of access: World Wide Web.
500 $aTitle from PDF file as viewed on 2/22/2005.
530 $aAlso available in print.
504 $aIncludes bibliographical references.
520 3 $a"Empirical research over the last decade has uncovered predictive relationships between the slope of the yield curve and subsequent real activity and inflation. Some of these relationships are highly significant, but their theoretical motivations suggest that they may not be stable over time. We use recent econometric techniques for break testing to examine whether the empirical relationships are in fact stable. We consider continuous models, which predict either economic growth or inflation, and binary models, which predict either recessions or inflationary pressure. In each case, we draw on evidence from Germany and the United States. Models that predict real activity are more stable than those that predict inflation, and binary models are more stable than continuous models. The model that predicts recessions is stable over our full sample period in both Germany and the United States"--Federal Reserve Bank of New York web site.
650 0 $aInterest rates$xEffect of inflation on$zUnited States.
650 0 $aInterest rates$xEffect of inflation on$zGermany.
650 0 $aInflation (Finance)$zUnited States.
650 0 $aInflation (Finance)$zGermany.
650 0 $aRecessions$zUnited States.
650 0 $aRecessions$zGermany.
700 1 $aRodrigues, Anthony Paul
700 1 $aSchich, Sebastian
710 2 $aFederal Reserve Bank of New York.
830 0 $aStaff reports (Federal Reserve Bank of New York : Online) ;$vno. 113.
856 40 $uhttp://www.ny.frb.org/research/staff_reports/sr113.html