MARC Record from Harvard University

LEADER: 03161cam a2200433Ii 4500
001 014142741-8
005 20140820110720.0
008 140227t20142014caub b 000 0 eng d
035 0 $aocn871169077
040 $aAWC$beng$erda$cAWC$dDGU$dCGU$dOCLCO$dOCLCF$dKSG
043 $aa-sy---
088 $aPE-115
090 $aDS98.6$b.J45 2014
100 1 $aJenkins, Brian Michael,$eauthor.
245 14 $aThe dynamics of Syria's civil war /$cBrian Michael Jenkins.
264 1 $a[Santa Monica, California] :$bRAND Corporation,$c[2014]
264 4 $c©2014
300 $a23 pages :$bcolor maps ;$c28 cm
336 $atext$btxt$2rdacontent
337 $aunmediated$bn$2rdamedia
338 $avolume$bnc$2rdacarrier
500 $a"PE-115 (2014)"
500 $a"Perspective : expert insights on a timely policy issue."
504 $aIncludes bibliographical references (pages 22-23).
505 0 $aPrincipal observations -- The dynamics of Syria's civil war -- What this essay is about -- The belligerents -- The opposition forces -- The inescapable course of events -- Potential game changers -- The fighting will go on, creating instability lasting decades -- The threat posed by foreign fighters -- Some policy implications -- Conclusion.
520 $aAs the ongoing conflict in Syria enters its third year, persistent uncertainty regarding the circumstances on the ground, potential outcomes, and long-term consequences continues to confound analysis and possible policy responses. This essay explores the dynamics of the Syrian conflict, including the characteristics and interests of the belligerents, the interests of foreign powers involved, and the implications that the present course of events has for the future of Syria and the wider region. It is concluded that the possibility of reaching a political settlement is becoming increasingly unlikely as the sectarian nature of the conflict intensifies and the unity of the rebel groups remains fractious, no end to the current stalemate is in sight. The conflict has become an existential struggle for all concerned, so not even the fall of Assad will bring an end to the violence. Also, the involvement of Islamic extremist groups and other hardliners poses a future international terrorist threat that could be directed against the West. By the end of 2014, more than half of the Syrian population could be living as refugees, which will exacerbate existing sectarian tensions in neighboring countries, another factor conducive to terrorism. We will be dealing with the effluent of Syria's civil war for decades.
588 $aTitle from caption.
651 0 $aSyria$xHistory$yCivil War, 2011-
651 0 $aSyria$xPolitics and government$y21st century.
651 0 $aSyria$xForecasting.
650 7 $aForecasting.$2fast
650 7 $aPolitical science.$2fast
651 7 $aSyria.$2fast
648 7 $aSince 2000$2fast
710 2 $aRand Corporation,$eissuing body.
776 08 $iOnline version:$aJenkins, Brian Michael.$tDynamics of Syria's civil war.$d[Santa Monica, California?] : RAND Corporation, [2014]$w(OCoLC)878077725
988 $a20140820
049 $aKSGG
906 $0OCLC