Check nearby libraries
Buy this book
When you buy books using these links the Internet Archive may earn a small commission.
The Signal and the Noise
Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't
by Nate Silver
- 38 Ratings
- 51 Want to read
- 2 Currently reading
- 40 Have read
Previews available in: English
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com, where Silver is one of the nation’s most influential political forecasters.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
Showing 3 featured editions. View all 3 editions?
Edition | Availability |
---|---|
1 |
cccc
Libraries near you:
WorldCat
|
2
The signal and the noise: The art and science of prediction
2012, Penguin Books
Hardcover
in English
1846147522 9781846147524
|
zzzz
Libraries near you:
WorldCat
|
3
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't
2012, Penguin Press
Hardcover
in English
159420411X 9781594204111
|
aaaa
Libraries near you:
WorldCat
|
Book Details
Published in
Edition Notes
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Classifications
The Physical Object
ID Numbers
Community Reviews (0)
Feedback?October 22, 2021 | Edited by ImportBot | import existing book |
August 6, 2021 | Edited by New York Times Bestsellers Bot | Add NYT bestseller tag |
August 3, 2020 | Edited by ImportBot | import existing book |
January 12, 2019 | Edited by MARC Bot | import existing book |
July 11, 2012 | Created by LC Bot | import new book |