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January 30, 2010 | History

Political violence and economic growth 1 edition

Political violence and economic growth
Cristina Bodea

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Political violence and economic growth
Cristina Bodea, Ibrahim A. Elbadawi.

Published 2008 by World Bank in [Washington, D.C .
Written in English.

About the Book

"This paper analyzes the economic growth impact of organized political violence. First, the authors articulate the theoretical underpinnings of the growth impact of political violence in a popular model of growth under uncertainty. The authors show that, under plausible assumptions regarding attitudes toward risk, the overall effects of organized political violence are likely to be much higher than its direct capital destruction impact. Second, using a quantitative model of violence that distinguishes between three levels of political violence (riots, coups, and civil war), the authors use predicted probabilities of aggregate violence and its three manifestations to identify their growth effects in an encompassing growth model. Panel regressions suggest that organized political violence, especially civil war, significantly lowers long-term economic growth. Moreover, unlike most previous studies, the authors also find ethnic fractionalization to have a negative and direct effect on growth, though its effect is substantially ameliorated by the institutions specific to a non-factional partial democracy. Third, the results show that Sub-Saharan Africa has been disproportionately impacted by civil war, which explains a substantial share of its economic decline, including the widening income gap relative to East Asia. Civil wars have also been costly for Sub-Saharan Africa. For the case of Sudan, a typical large African country experiencing a long-duration conflict, the cost of war amounts to $46 billion (in 2000 fixed prices), which is roughly double the country's current stock of external debt. Fourth, the authors suggest that to break free from its conflict-underdevelopment trap, Africa needs to better manage its ethnic diversity. The way to do this would be to develop inclusive, non-factional democracy. A democratic but factional polity would not work, and would be only marginally better than an authoritarian regime. "--World Bank web site.

Edition Notes

Title from PDF file as viewed on 5/20/2009.

Includes bibliographical references.

Also available in print.

System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Mode of access: World Wide Web.

Series
Policy research working paper -- 4692, Policy research working papers (Online) -- 4692.

Classifications

Library of Congress
HG3881.5.W57

The Physical Object

Format
Electronic resource

ID Numbers

Open Library
OL23579205M
LC Control Number
2009655719

History Created December 11, 2009 · 2 revisions Download catalog record: RDF / JSON

January 30, 2010 Edited by WorkBot add more information to works
December 11, 2009 Created by WorkBot add works page